Let’s not get carried away here.
The Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are somewhere between nearly impossible and non-existent.
And yet it’s suddenly the subject of considerable media chatter.
It’s like a Rube Goldberg contraption: If this happens and that happens and this other long-shot thing somehow falls into place, the ball ends up in the cup.
Virtually everyone, including many Republicans I’ve spoken to privately, agrees that the Democrats will take the House in November. The margin may not be huge, given that most incumbents win reelection, but having the opposition party control the floor, the committees and a blizzard of investigations would utterly change the last two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
The latest NBC poll has 63 percent of those surveyed strongly or somewhat disapproving of Trump’s job performance, and 67 percent strongly or somewhat disapproving of his handling of the Iran war. Ouch.
But now mainstream pundits are so absorbed by such sinking poll numbers, and the war’s unpopularity, that they believe Democrats can walk on water and quite possibly ride that flood into Senate control.
They’re even talking about Texas.
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I mean, come on. Remember the endless puffery around Beto O’Rourke, who lost for Senate and governor? Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s. And yet every couple of years we get "this is it! Texas is ready to turn blue!"
I know, Democratic contender James Talarico has raised truckloads of money since CBS refused to air his Stephen Colbert interview.
And in politics you can never say never.
Much will depend on whether Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP runoff. Cornyn is viewed by many Republicans as too moderate. But Paxton was impeached (then acquitted) of charges including bribery in 2023, settled criminal fraud charges by paying restitution, and divorced by his wife who said he’d had an affair.
So yeah, it’s a crazy year.
And yeah, if the war is over, much will depend on the economy bouncing back – a tired cliché that happens to be true.
The New York Times examines the question in a piece so loaded down with caveats that its corporate butt is fully covered:
"A blue wave is not guaranteed, of course, and Democrats would not be assured to flip two reliably Republican states even if it were. But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus."
That’s called tiptoeing into the water. The carefully crafted Nate Cohn piece admits that Democratic candidates would have to win seven out of seven competitive races. Seven out of seven!
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I mean, that’s as likely as the world getting to see the dark side of the moon.
Uh, let’s try another analogy.
Seven out of seven is less likely than winning the lottery.
It’s less likely than gas prices suddenly sinking. Which is why Trump contradicted Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who told CNN that gas prices below $3 a gallon "might not happen till next year."
"Totally wrong," says the president.
So here’s the rundown.
Every Dem in the Senate today represents a state that Joe Biden carried in 2020, because the party has fared so poorly in red states. (One example: When West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, who drove Biden crazy, retired, he was replaced by Republican Jim Justice.)
And – here’s another Times caveat! – no party has managed to flip even two states that leaned the other way politically since 2008.
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The assessment basically rests on the quality of the Democratic candidates heading into the midterms.
In North Carolina, that’s former governor Roy Cooper.
In Ohio, it’s former senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024 during the Trump victory.
In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola is already ahead in the polls.
But Maine is weird. The strong contender was supposed to be Gov. Janet Mills. But she’s trailing in the primary, by 2 to 1, behind progressive first-time contender and military veteran Graham Platner.
Platner has acknowledged wearing a Nazi tattoo. In 2021, CNN reported on a series of posts in which Platner also called himself a communist, said rural Americans are "racist" and "stupid," described all police officers as "bastards," and used the word "retard" several times. He says these were stupid jokes. And Elizabeth Warren campaigned with him over the weekend.
What’s more, would either candidate be able to oust independent Republican fixture Susan Collins?
At the same time, the Democrats have to defend seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
Even the fiercely nonpartisan Cook Political report shifted four Senate races to the Democrats, but that’s from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, or Lean Republican to Tossup. Not exactly a slam dunk.
But the Times story has started to echo on television.
"Republicans Are Starting to Worry About Losing the Senate," an MS NOW banner blared.
The ultimate Times hedge: "If a blue wave materializes, Democrats have a chance to ride it to Senate control."
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But here’s the thing. It’s an off-year election. Let’s not forget: everything depends on turnout.
If Trump voters are demoralized, many may stay home. If Democratic voters are ticked off but not to the point of driving themselves to the polls, that will muffle the impact.
If politics were predictable, the pontificators and the junkies would have far less material for their never-ending arguments.
Footnote: I’m prepared to eat crow on November 3rd.
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